Direct Air Capture: Technology Status, Cost Outlook and Integration Potential with Industrial Sites

Report no.16/26: For hard-to-abate industrial sectors, Direct Air Capture (DAC) has gained increasing attention as a potential strategy to mitigate residual CO₂ emissions. This report evaluates the potential application of DAC technologies at industrial sites by providing an overview of available technologies, their claimed cost ranges and their potential cost evolution over time. It also assesses their application through a refinery case study based on solvent-based DAC technology.

DAC is considered a technically feasible carbon removal option, but it is characterised by high reported costs, considerable uncertainty and a lower level of maturity compared with conventional carbon capture technologies. Only a limited number of companies are active in the DAC landscape, with relatively few technologies having reached demonstration or early commercial stage. Sorbent-based systems are currently the most mature, while solvent-based systems are advancing towards large-scale deployment. Current cost estimates vary widely across technologies. At large cumulative deployment, solid sorbent, liquid solvent and mineral-looping DAC are projected to reach similar cost ranges of approximately 300 EUR/tCO₂, despite significant differences in first-of-a-kind costs and technology readiness.

The techno-economic assessment considers the use of solvent-based DAC to address the remaining emissions of a representative refinery following the application of post-combustion CO₂ capture using amine-based systems. Under the assessed scenarios, the cost is estimated at approximately 370 EUR/tCO₂ removed, excluding CO₂ transport and storage. The results are highly sensitive to energy costs, the emissions intensity of energy sources and plant scale. DAC location is also influenced by the availability of low-cost and low-carbon energy, the intended CO₂ application and supporting infrastructure. While co-location with industrial sites may be relevant for CO₂ utilisation pathways, the large land footprint of current DAC technologies makes large-scale deployment at existing refineries spatially challenging, favouring dedicated DAC hubs with access to low-carbon energy and CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure.

Cost projections towards 2050 remain uncertain and strongly dependent on deployment scale and policy context. Literature projections indicate costs of approximately 170 to 1,260 EUR/tCO₂ by 2050, with large-scale deployment occurring mainly after 2050 under stringent climate scenarios. Therefore, DAC should be considered a complementary option for addressing hard‑to‑abate residual emissions, rather than a primary decarbonization pathway, with deployment most favourable in locations offering low-cost, low-carbon energy and access to CO₂ storage infrastructure.