Sustainable biofeedstock supply chains for advanced biofuels in Europe towards 2050
Advanced biofuels are expected to play a key role in the decarbonisation of the European transport sector, particularly in hard-to-abate segments such as aviation, maritime transport, and heavy-duty road vehicles. To support the EU’s climate neutrality objectives by 2050, large-scale deployment of sustainable biofeedstocks will be required, along with efficient, cost-effective supply chains and biorefining infrastructure. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the most optimal supply chain strategies for the large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels.
This report, commissioned by Concawe in collaboration with Utrecht University and TNO, presents a comprehensive, cost-optimised analysis of sustainable biofeedstock supply chains for advanced biofuel production across the EU-27 + UK for 2030 and 2050.
The study focuses on the main lignocellulosic feedstocks listed under Annex IX of the Renewable Energy Directive. It applies a spatially explicit supply chain optimisation model (based on Mixed-Integer Linear Programming), which integrates high-resolution biomass availability data, geospatial transport modelling, and spatially explicit information on EU industrial and transport infrastructure. The modelling framework also incorporates techno-economic data for two representative conversion process technologies, Gasification and Fischer–Tropsch (GFT) and Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL), evaluated under centralised and decentralised configurations.
By exploring a range of scenarios for biomass availability, advanced biofuel demand, and industrial integration options, the study addresses the following key questions:
- What are the optimal supply chain configurations (centralised vs. decentralised) and main cost drivers for advanced biofuel supply chains in Europe?
- How do geography and existing infrastructure influence supply chain economics?
- In what ways do technology selection and economies of scale affect total production costs?