07 Mar 2024

Risk assessment and success factors for mobility electrification – Why developing a robust, competitive, resilient, sustainable, and sovereign battery industry is critical to succeed in the green energy transition

High-performance batteries play a crucial role in the advancement of electric mobility. They are essential for unlocking the full potential of electrification in transportation, while also presenting challenges related to potential supply shortages if the production capacity of battery cells does not expand rapidly enough to meet the growing demand.

This study offers a detailed examination of the global and European battery markets, considering evolving regulations, consumer behaviors, and emerging technologies. The objectives of the battery study can be summarized in four main aspects:

  • Develop forecasts for battery demand across various sectors, encompassing all forms of mobility, energy storage systems, and consumer electronics.
  • Assess the availability of battery cell supply in different regions.
  • Evaluate the impact of recycling and new chemistries on the markets for key metals.
  • Determine the associated supply and strategic risks involved.

The study's main findings can be summarized as follows:

  • A robust demand forecast extending up to the year 2035.
  • A realistic projection of available battery production from 2023 to 2035.
  • Insights into potential game-changing developments in battery technology.
  • A comprehensive view of the supply, strategic, and geopolitical risks associated with the battery industry.

A detailed, bottom-up approach was employed to assess and forecast the demand and supply of Li-Ion batteries for both light and heavy-duty vehicles up to the year 2035. This granular bottom-up methodology is more robust than traditional top down and macro approaches and allows for the creation of scenarios for long-term forecasts to assess potential market outcomes.

Three scenarios were developed during this battery study: one serves as the reference scenario, referred to as "Baseline," and the other two capture the spectrum of possible outcomes. These scenarios provide a mean to evaluate the minimum and maximum market values for long-term forecasts, and specific names will be assigned to each scenario based on the assumptions made regarding application markets, demand, and supply.

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