Impact of the Belgian ‘Net-Zero’ Carbon Energy Projections on Air Quality and Climate
VITO/EnergyVille was commissioned by Concawe to conduct a comprehensive study on the effects of potential ‘Net-Zero’ pathways in Belgium on air pollutant emissions covered under National Emission reduction Commitments (NEC) Directive (i.e., NOx, SOx, fine particulate matter,…) and their associated ambient air concentrations governed by the Ambient Air Quality Directive (AAQD).
The impact of the ‘Net-Zero’ pathways on air pollution is known to be a complex interaction between various sectors, technologies and energy carriers. Therefore, an integrated modelling framework is proposed to analyse this complex system through a modelling exercise using Belgium as a case study.
The Belgian energy system model TIMES, developed within the ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program), a long-standing Technology Collaboration Programme of the International Energy Agency (IEA), is utilized to create the various energy scenarios. Subsequently, the study translates the derived energy projections into equivalent air pollutant emissions using a methodology that aligns as much as possible with the standard methods employed by local Belgian authorities. The anticipated emission trends for both existing and emerging technologies have been carefully integrated into the analysis. In a final stage, the emission projections are translated into ambient air concentrations levels via the SHERPA-QUARK dispersion model.
A thorough analysis of the results, alongside benchmarking with existing European and Belgian datasets, highlights significant challenges in developing a fully integrated approach for the energy – emissions - air quality system at Member State level. These challenges primarily involve inconsistency between the energy and air pollutant emission assumptions and detailed data availability at sector level. The latter include e.g., estimated fuel mixes and their evolution at subsector level, evolution of the efficiency of abatement technologies, availability and impact of new emerging technologies.
As an illustrative case study, the methodology was applied to derive 2050 projections for a central scenario and two sensitivity tests. The exercise was used to explore the requirements of an integrated assessment study with respect to data requirements and methodological assumptions. The study primarily aimed to illustrate the difficulties, uncertainties and challenges of linking energy, climate and air quality concepts. While this type of long-term projections are subject to significant uncertainties, it could be demonstrated, assuming a Net-Zero scenario for the Belgian energy system from 2050 onwards, that the NECD targets for Belgian emissions can be met in 2030 and that the AAQD limit values set for NO2 in 2030 could be reached in most but not all of the Belgian monitoring stations. These conclusions are in line with the general findings of other modelling exercises at European (e.g. GAINS) and Belgian level and demonstrate the level of robustness in the conclusions that still can be obtained in long-term scenario analysis.