Impact Analysis of Mass EV Adoption and Low Carbon Intensity Fuels Scenarios
The impacts of three scenarios in the European light duty vehicle market to 2050 have been analysed, versus a European Commission Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, as follows :
– High EV scenario representing mass EV adoption to ~90% BEV parcby 2050;
– Low Carbon Fuels scenario representing use of significant proportions of biofuels and eFuels;
– Alternative scenario representing use of more PHEVs together with increased use of bio-and eFuels.
Total parclife cycle GHG emissions reduce to less than 13% of 2015 value by 2050 for all three scenarios, and the annual parctotal costs to the end user are similar for the High EV and Low Carbon Fuels scenarios
In the High EV scenario the cost of EV charging infrastructure alone could reach €30 Billion p.a. by 2040, and a cumulative cost of ~€630 Billion by 2050, versus ~€326 Billion for the Low Carbon Fuels scenari.
There are potential risks associated with the availability of key resources and increased battery production rates required to serve a complete transition to BEVs by 2040.
In addition, major shifts to electrified transport in the High EV scenario would certainly require alternative approaches to tax revenue generation, due to substantial (up to 66 €Billion p.a.) reductions in net fiscal revenue.
The modelling suggests an optimal solution from the perspective of cost-effective GHG reduction may lie somewhere in-between the scenarios evaluated.
Due to the rapid rate of change in this area, there are significant uncertainties on the future evolution of battery technology and costs and on the infrastructure requirements to support a wholesale shift to BEVs.