Estimating the implications of road fuels quality changes on the EU refining industry

Calculations of the cost and global CO2 emission implications to European refining arising as a consequence of required measures such as the Auto/Oil I and potential future Auto/Oil II legislation need to be done in a very particular way using long-range regional industry-wide refinery planning basis and techniques. The methodology used to determine future costs needs to address the effects that will arise over a lifetime and must avoid technically unsound approaches. Pitfalls include making assumptions on non-forecastable factors such as future product prices, or adding together individual refinery solutions that leave a gap (e.g. between demand and supply) to be covered somehow by some unknown outsider.