Concawe’s Transport and Fuel Outlook towards EU 2030 Climate Targets

19 Apr 2021

This Concawe report aims at providing an outlook on the European transport sector by modelling elements such as the evolution of the different powertrains and the availability of different alternative fuels over the period 2018-2030. An analytical fleet-based model has been used, projecting the evolution of the fleet composition as well as the corresponding fuel demand towards 2030. The analytical tool is used to simulate different parameter combinations of vehicle and fuel (and thereof renewable fuel) technologies to assess fuel demand scenarios looking at vehicle fleet mix, fossil fuel demand, total renewable energy demand, and RED-II target. The composition of 2030 new vehicle sales has been defined based on market trends and experts’ view, in compliance with the current 2030 CO2 intensity targets for new sales in road transport. Besides this, a current and future estimate on both the total energy requirements and alternative fuel penetration have been included for other transport modes including aviation, rail and maritime sectors. The analytical tools evaluate fuel supply availability based on an updated market-based outlook on production plants currently in operation as well as the planned capacities for biofuels.
This study finally explores the compliance with RED II regulation and 2030 targets in a baseline scenario considering the impact of two different interpretations of using renewable electricity in the transport sector. Complementing the baseline, additional sensitivities on key individual parameters have been explored, mainly around the uptake of electric vehicles, bio-kerosene, biomethane, liquid biofuels, and gasoline fuel grades. The sensitivity analysis was conducted to show their individual impact on reaching the RED II targets, to inform the currently on-going process on future RED II targets for road transport (to be agreed in 2021).