New Concawe linear programming model

The production of liquid fuels in Europe is evolving to embrace the low-carbon economy transition as presented by the European Commission (‘Fit for 55’, ‘EU Green deal’, etc.). Therefore, a flexible and reliable tool is needed to anticipate and simulate the potential evolution of the current refining system and the alternatives for low-carbon liquid fuels production.

Since the mid-90s Concawe has operated a refinery linear programming (LP) model representing the combination of all refineries operating in the EU-27 + Norway, Switzerland and the UK, most of which are members of Concawe.

This model was originally developed to estimate the cost to EU refiners of EU legislation (mostly affecting product quality) and of expected changes in EU market demands, and the structure of this model has been perfectly suitable for the studies carried out until now. However, to accommodate additional features such as the low-carbon fuels pathways, green hydrogen, carbon capture or RED (Renewable Energy Directive) targets for transport fuels would involve a disproportionate amount of time and effort.

In 2022, Concawe decided to build a new LP model, capable of addressing the upcoming challenges faced by the European refining system in the context of the low-carbon economy transition, and flexible enough to be upgraded more easily and more quickly