Availability Potential of Intermediate Crops in the EU to 2050

Report no. 6/26: Advanced biofuels are expected to play a key role in decarbonising EU transport, particularly sectors that are difficult to electrify. The 2024 revision of Annex IX of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) broadened the range of eligible advanced biofuel feedstocks by introducing intermediate crops grown on fallow land within existing crop rotations. These crops are gaining industry attention as they offer the prospect of low carbon feedstocks without competing with food production.

In this context, Concawe commissioned a study by Wageningen Environmental Research and the Centre for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES) to explore the long term potential of intermediate crops in the EU 27 up to 2050. A structured screening methodology was applied to identify promising crop options, drawing on yield data, regional climatic suitability and key environmental aspects such as soil health, biodiversity and water use. Crop suitability and availability were analysed using a spatially explicit crop growth model at regional (NUTS-3) level under rain fed conditions, accounting for climate change, land use evolution, technological progress and crop rotation constraints.

Future potential was explored through multiple scenarios reflecting current conditions and alternative high and low emissions pathways. Sensitivity analyses further assessed the influence of crop breeding and climate driven changes in agricultural systems. Overall, the study provides a robust and forward looking basis for understanding how intermediate crops could contribute to the sustainable supply of feedstocks for advanced biofuels in the EU.