Impact of the Fit for 55 package on energy demand of the EU transport sector up to 2050

Report no. 5/26:This report assesses the implications of the EU Fit for 55 (FF55) legislative package for transport energy demand and fuel mix to 2050, with a focus on compliance with the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) and the EU Emissions Trading Systems (ETS1 and ETS2). Using an in‑house transport energy‑demand model, the analysis covers all major transport modes and examines how alternative demand and fleet‑turnover trajectories influence the achievement of EU climate and energy objectives. Two illustrative scenarios (low and high) are evaluated, with differing assumptions on passenger‑car activity and scrappage rates, as well as alternative aviation and maritime demand growth pathways.

The results show that rapid electrification of road transport leads to a sharp reduction in road energy demand, declining to around 193 Mtoe by 2030 and 77-93 Mtoe by 2050. Fossil liquid fuel demand in road transport reaches zero in 2050 in the low scenario and close to zero in the high scenario. In 2050, aviation and maritime energy demand ranges from 57-87 Mtoe and 52-74 Mtoe, respectively. Across all modes, total transport energy demand falls by 18-39% between 2019 and 2050, while fossil liquid fuel demand declines by 85-86% compared with 2019 levels. By 2050, ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime targets imply demand for approximately 47-67 Mtoe of advanced biofuels and 39-58 Mtoe of renewable fuels of non‑biological origin (RFNBOs).

For 2030, the analysis finds that compliance with RED III cannot be achieved through sectoral mandates alone. Two illustrative pathways to close the remaining gap are therefore explored: additional deployment of renewable fuels or additional road electrification.

The analysis highlights the scale of transformation required across vehicles, energy systems and fuel supply chains, underlining both the opportunities and the challenges associated with delivering sufficient low-carbon energy carriers to achieve EU climate ambitions.

Note: Results are presented for analytical comparison and are not forecasts. The modelling does not assess feasibility or economic impacts and does not evaluate fuel supply availability. The European Commission’s December 2025 proposal to revise the EU CO₂ emission performance standards for new cars and vans is not considered in this study.